“What should we do about tariffs?” It’s a question we’ve heard a lot lately, often with a note of fear in the voice of whoever is asking it. In this message, we want to answer that question. We also want to talk a little about fear, how we handle it…and how we can benefit from it.
We’ve known it was coming, but on February 1, President Trump made it official: The U.S. intends to levy a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, plus a 10% tariff on imports from China.1 (This is on top of tariffs that were already in place.) The White House also announced that “energy resources” from Canada — essentially, oil — will have only a 10% tariff.
Every January, it’s customary to look back on the year that was. What were the highlights? What were the “lowlights”? What events will we remember? Most importantly, what did we learn?
It’s always great to start a letter with the words, “The markets finished the quarter at an all-time high.” Fortunately, that’s the case this time around. The S&P 500 rose 2% in September, and 5.5% for the entire quarter. The Dow, meanwhile, gained 8.2% in Q3. Both indices set new records along the way.
Why do September and October tend to be so volatile? Unfortunately, despite a lot of research on the subject, no one has found a single causal link that can explain it. (Certainly not one that repeats year after year.) However, there are plenty of theories about the September Effect. Here are three of the most plausible:
On August 2 alone, the Dow fell by over 600 points, and the NASDAQ entered into correction territory. This came on the heels of a similar slide the day before. The reasons for this drop are fairly simple to understand: A spike in unemployment, coupled with fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates.